El Mercurio 11-25-2016
viernes, 25 de noviembre de 2016
miércoles, 11 de mayo de 2016
sábado, 16 de abril de 2016
CHINA HAS MORE ROOM FOR GROWTH!
China has MORE room FOR growTH!*
Since the twentieth century China has navigated within different
economic models always with a strong state participation. But in the last three
decades, its authorities have driven toward and increasing integration and
openness with the global economy, along with a huge boost to export manufactured
goods from companies where there is a strong state control.
The giant supplier
Some clouds exist regarding the consequences of the economic slowdown in
the Asian giant, which after growing at an average rate of just over 10%
between 1991 and 2014, in 2015 for the first time in 25 years its GDP growth
rate was less than 7%, 6.9% as estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
(see figure 1). IMF projects that in 2016 and 2017 China will growth 6.5% and
6.2%, respectively; what means that each year it will add to the world economy
and economy that`s 90% of the size of the Turkish economy, or 133% the size of
the Argentinean economy.
China today is one of the driving forces behind the development of the
global economy. Since 1990 the size of its economy has grown more than tenfold,
from being the 12th world's largest economy, behind Brazil and Mexico, to
become the world's second largest economy, with about 13.4% of the value of the
global economy in current dollars, below the US reaching 22.5%. So when China
has been growing at rates of 10%, it added 1.3% of growth to the global
economy, but with China growing at rates under 7%, its contribution to the
growth of the global economy is reduced to half. The global economy has grown
at rates of 3.3% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015 according to statistics
of the International Monetary Fund.
The effects of the downturn and slower growth in China have been felt in
different areas, as lower growth in demand for raw materials and energy, and the
tumble of their prices, which have severely adversely affected revenues and government
budgets for those raw materials exporter countries. We have seen the collapse
of copper prices from $ 4 per pound in 2011, to just over $ 2 per pound in
2016; and the collapse of oil prices from over $ 100 dollars per barrel in 2011
to levels of US $ 30 per barrel in February 2016 (Figure 2).
State
capitalism
After three decades of the establishment of the Communist China of Mao
Tse-tung (1949), where the state took control of most of the means of
production, from the early 80s China begin to take some steps towards a more
decentralized economic system, opening more space to private capital and
individual initiative, but retaining a strong state control and boost in the
country's industrialization, using as a vehicle state-owned enterprises (SOE`s).
China
reforms have driven to a large-scale industrialization, in a largely
centralized economy, which seeks greater integration with the global economy with
an emphasis on exporting manufactured goods. These reforms have turned China
into a giant supplier of manufactured goods globally, which holds more than 13%
of worldwide exports, after having only 1.9% in 1990 and 4.3% in 2001. China
can be considered as the economic region with the largest volume of exports in
the world, followed by the European Economic Community and the United States.
Their model is based on what is known as State
Capitalism, where most of the business and economic activity takes place in
companies where there is strong state ownership and control. These Chinese companies
have become global giants, in diverse sectors, such as manufacturing, natural
resources, financial services and utilities. These echoed in that more than 80%
of Chinese stock market consists of SOEs, and, for example, also on the fact that
in 2015 five of the ten largest companies in the world, according to Forbes
ranking, were controlled by the Government of China, including four banks and
Petro China.
The strong industrialization policy led by Chinese government, implied
that in 2014 the rate of capital investment is 47% of GDP, figure that is
almost twice the world average and more than twice the rate of Chile. The
strong investment aimed at productive infrastructure and housing has installed
a glut of productive capacity and housing that has generated doubts about what`s
the true private and social returns on these investments, which, coupled with a
strongly intervened financial and securities market, makes it difficult to
determine the free or market equilibrium prices, both in the stock and the
asset markets. The price system in many sectors of the Chinese economy operates
with restrictions, so that adjustments in prices and quantities between supply
and demand do not always occur as should happen when supply and demand are freely
moved.
It has been the coexistence of public and private decisions in the
management of companies which has generated concern regarding the businesses and
profitability criteria that exist behind the process of decision making, and
development plans of SOEs, and the impact all these have on imbalances at the
macro and microeconomic level.
The rapid growth of China, subsidized by a government policy that has
encouraged disproportionate investment at the expenses of lower wages, is what
has endorsed a strong boost with cheap exports of manufactured goods. The
return on assets of state enterprises, which dominate heavy industry, are a
third of what is achieved by private companies, and half of what is achieved by
foreign companies in China.[1] This
situation has meant an increasing level of concern regarding the SOEs, which
are seen as "zombie companies". The problem of SOEs with excess of
debt and capacity in the Asian giant, with a strong state intervention in their
decision making process, are seen as closely intertwined issues within the
economic reality of China.
What
the Rankings say ABOUT CHINA?
If we consider the place of China in various rankings, and what they
speak about the country`s development level, and business environment attractiveness,
we see that there is a room for the country to growth more!
China ranks 144 in the Index of Economic Freedom prepared by the
Heritage Foundation for a total of 178 economies, which evaluates the right of
each person to control their destiny, their work and property; the country is
in the number 84 position in the Doing Business ranking compiled by the World
Bank for a total of
189 economies in the world, which assesses the ease of doing business looking
at the regulatory framework and its implementation; it ranks 90 in the Human
Development Index (HDI) prepared by the United Nations for a total of 188
economies, which assesses the average achievements in a country in three main
dimensions of human development, say life expectancy and healthy, level of
education and a decent standard of living as measured by per capita income; and
finally ranks at number 83 in the Corruption Perceptions Index prepared by International Transparency which evaluates the
perception regarding the level of corruption in the public sector.
Except for the Index of Economic Freedom, where China is far below the average, in the other measures is position in the middle of the table, which recognizes significant achievements, but also acknowledges the huge space that the country has to growth even more by implementing best practices in areas such as institutions, governance and the rule of law, the fight against corruption, more economic freedom, and in the promotion of more welfare for his population.
Except for the Index of Economic Freedom, where China is far below the average, in the other measures is position in the middle of the table, which recognizes significant achievements, but also acknowledges the huge space that the country has to growth even more by implementing best practices in areas such as institutions, governance and the rule of law, the fight against corruption, more economic freedom, and in the promotion of more welfare for his population.
Advance reforms: state enterprises and
the State
China needs to make progress in promoting reforms where is promoted a
proper process of decision making in their companies according to market rules,
so that supply and demand find their balance without distortion, and thus
prices reflect the true scarcity goods and services. The country should improve
markets efficiency by allowing them to operate with increasing degrees of
freedom, and that decisions on savings, consumption and investment have a larger
component of decision taken on the market and less from the state, guiding its
population to have a greater say in consumption and savings decisions. And,
reducing the state industrialization bias in the promotion of manufacturing exports,
as the main engine of economic growth, at the expense of the population interest
that aspires to a more focused economy on what their needs and desires are for
higher levels of consumption. All this would allow the production of good and
services to expand into areas where the needs and interests of its citizens are,
such as health, education and entertainment, with a smaller amount of attention
on the beliefs of those who plan and decide the economy from the state. The country
needs to deepen reforms that promote inclusion, mostly in rural areas, household
spending, and a fairness environment for private and public sector
entrepreneurship without the subsidies from the state.
Today, China is moving into this direction, and we might expect that the
country will kept growing at rates that in many places are just a dream. China has more room for growth!
* A Spanish version of this column was published by ClaseEjecutiva in the newspaper El Mercurio of Santiago on April 12, 2016. El Mercurio.
[1] According to “The Economist”, February 27 – March 4, 2016.
[1] According to “The Economist”, February 27 – March 4, 2016.
martes, 12 de abril de 2016
miércoles, 11 de noviembre de 2015
Latin America energy integration: a pending challenge
South America is a region blessed with abundant natural and energy resources, fossil fuels and renewable sources, where its appropriate use can bring significant revenue to his population. While in the region remain large settlements of poverty and underdevelopment, with precarious living conditions for a significant part of the population, the region has not take advantage of all its energy resources potential.
In the region's oil reserves are 20% of world reserves and second in amount after the Middle Eastern, and allow meet current demand in the region for the next 100 years; natural gas reserves are 266 trillion cubic feet, and they increase in 500% if we add the technically exploitable reserve of unconventional gas, which is enough to supply the current consumption of the region for the next 400 years. South America also has a great opportunity to develop a renewable energy matrix, with a huge hydropower potential of 360 GW, of which only 40% has been developed. And, the to this availability of renewable hydro resources we must be added the great potential in new sources of electricity generation such as wind, solar, geothermal, tidal and ocean, and biofuels, which in the coming years will have an increasing role in the energy matrix in response to the great challenges facing humanity to develop a low GHGE energy matrix.
While the region has been favored with abundant renewable and conventional energy resources, they are not distributed uniformly in the countries, while also the distribution of these resources is not related to the current energy needs and demands presented in each of the countries. For example, in Chile the high costs of energy are explained in part by scarce energy resources has it is compared with other regional economies, putting on its aspirations to achieving development an obstacle because the loss of competitiveness that the high energy costs mean for the realization of productive enterprises. Energy resource access conditions are more favorable in other countries in the region with abundant energy resources which, besides a progressive consolidation of their democracies, political and social stability, have allowed them to create an increasingly favorable climate for foreign investment.
Energy integration in the region is moving, but slowly, and is an area of development where everyone can win. Exporters get more resources to nurture their growth, employment and finance social programs; while importing countries, under a robust contractual and institutional design, access to more efficient sources of conventional and renewable energy, and at lower prices to reach a more competitive development.
What are the alternatives for energy integration? One possibility is to base the integration in the export of surpluses, based on the availability of energy surpluses existing at the time. In this model, for example, countries complement their electrical systems to reduce the risks of shortage facing a drought season or a glitch in their generation - transmission system, where energy trades have as main objective the provision of backup capacity and reserves to deal with contingencies. Here energy exchanges are small and certainly the benefits, where the countries underscores the concept of energy independence. A second model is one where the countries with abundant energy resources develop and commitment for long periods, energy infrastructure for export. In this model, the benefits of energy integration are higher for all stakeholders, and the exporting country may further advance the development of infrastructure such as electricity, which ultimately is funded by the importing country. An example of such integration is given by the binational Itaipu plant with 14,000 MW, a joint plant equally owned by Brazil and Paraguay, and where 80% of generation is destined to the Brazilian market.
The challenges of moving towards greater integration are not minor, they are technical, regulatory, commercial, but certainly the greatest is geopolitical. It is necessary to generate trust and certainty that what is agreed in matters of energy integration will be respected, and the region should avoid repeating situations like the failed experience of natural gas integration between Argentina and Chile which ended in a deep natural gas crisis where Argentina suspended natural gas exports to Chile. This crisis meant a before and an after in the Latin American energy integration process. It is therefore necessary to move decisively to achieve international agreements that have robust guarantees to generate trusts on the adequate security of energy supply. Undoubtedly, there are suspicions, but the conditions for appropriate energy integration should be worked and decidedly Latin America should move strongly into this game.
martes, 10 de noviembre de 2015
Doing Business: Is there a concern with Chile*
Doing Business: Is there a concern with Chile*
*This note complements on the note “Informe Doing Business: Otro llamado de atención
para Chile", published with Felipe Larrain in Diario Financiero, on November 6,
2015, pg. 4. www.df.cl
October 2015 the World Bank released the Doing
Business 2016 report (DB 2016), in its 13th edition. This report, with an universe
of 189 countries, assesses the main regulatory and economic constraints that
affect the development of small and medium enterprises in ten areas:
- Starting a Business
- Dealing with Construction Permits
- Getting Electricity
- Registering Property
- Getting Credit
- Protecting Minority Investors
- Paying Taxes
- Trading Across Borders
- Enforcing Contracts
- Resolving Insolvency
These areas are covered by more than 40 sub-indicators,
with which DB constructs a global ranking on how friendly is the business
environment in a country. The report also looks at aspects of labor market
regulation, but this variable is not included in the DB ranking. DB is the best
known report of the World Bank Group, which attracts the most attention from
the media, business and government, and it has strong supporters and detractors.[1]
In the past 12 years and for all countries covered, DB has logged over 2600
reforms in the areas measured by the report. The results have been very
promising because the gap in regulatory frameworks between the best and the worst
performing countries has narrowed, and several of the worst performing
countries have undertaken deep reforms which allowed them to catch-up with the
best performing countries. By way of example and globally, if in 2003 on average
took 51 days to start a business, in 2015 this figure was reduced to 20 days. Easing
the business environment does not mean having less or more inefficient regulation.
As is underscored in the DB 2016, the best 30 performer countries are not
those with little regulation but those with good rules that allow efficient and
transparent functioning of businesses and markets while protecting the public
interest.
Regarding previous years, the DB 2016 comes
with many improvements that were considered in a thorough methodological
revision recommended from an Independent Expert Panel that was called by the WBG
for that effect in 2013. As previously committed, some of the recommended changes
were introduced in the DB 2015 and the remaining ones in the DB 2016. The changes
have meant methodological improvements over the previous reports, incorporating
in the indicators aspects of quality while the previous indicators only
accounted for efficiency. Thus, it has become more difficult to compare the DB
rankings in a year with those of previous years. However, beyond the methodological
changes, the broad assessment of a country business environment, in those areas
measured by the DB report, has not changed as much, as illustrated by the
following picture which shows for the sample of countries the distance to
frontier scores under the old and the new methodology.
Distance
to frontier scores remain similar under the new methodology
Source: DB 2016
A concern on Chile
For Chile in a window that runs from mid-2006
until mid-2015 (i.e., from the DB 2007 to 2016) the country has a total of 9
regulatory and institutional reforms in the areas covered DB which affect the
business environment of small and medium enterprises. Until 2015 DB report,
Chile had locked 7 of these 9 reforms, where all of them have been positively assessed
by the World Bank in terms of their impact on the business environment for small
and medium enterprises. In DB 2016 report, Chile locked two new reforms: a New
Bankruptcy Law, positively assessed by the World Bank, which entered into force
in October 2014; and a tax reform, implemented by the current administration and
which was negatively assessed by the World Bank on the effects that it has on
the business environment for small and medium enterprises. Thus and on balance,
the net effects of these two reforms are that they cancel one another and Chile
remained in the same position of the DB ranking globally. For the first time since
the DB report is published, Chile has locked a reform that was negatively assessed
on its impacts for the business environment, affecting SME which generate near
80% of employment is the country and are the ones with the greatest
difficulties to increase their productivity.
Chile:
Topics in DB
|
DB 2016 Rank
|
DB 2015 Rank
|
Change in Rank
|
62
|
58
|
-4
|
|
24
|
25
|
1
|
|
51
|
47
|
-4
|
|
56
|
55
|
-1
|
|
79
|
71
|
-8
|
|
36
|
33
|
-3
|
|
33
|
28
|
-5
|
|
63
|
62
|
-1
|
|
56
|
56
|
No change
|
|
58
|
72
|
14
|
But, and beyond the assessment of Chile in DB
2016, the main concern on Chile should be on the long term trends of the
country in the DB rankings. With the exception of the years 2010-2013, since
2006 the country shows a long term downward trend in the ranking of DB. While in
the DB 2006 Chile leads the ranking in Latin America, with the position No. 24 globally,
followed by Mexico in position No. 62 (a distance of 38 positions in the global
ranking), in the DB 2016 Chile is in the position No. 48, behind Mexico in
the position No. 38 globally. The lack of reform in the second half of the past
decade, added to the fact that other countries have engaged in doing reforms to improve their business environment, relegated in DB 2010 Chile to position No. 53 globally and the
fourth place of Latin America,
behind Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Shortly, on the period of DB 2011 – 2013, Chile
leaded again in Latin America, reaching the position No. 37 globally in the DB 2013. However, the DB 2016 has not good news for Chile, where is behind Mexico, in position No. 48, and 24 positions down in the global ranking from where Chile was in DB 2006.
The negative trend in the global ranking of Chile should be a matter of concern. As Chile is not engaging in second generation reforms, many countries are making progress copying the best practices and creating a much better business environment to attractive investments. The advantage that once Chile had in the DB ranking within LAC has vanished, and the country has no longer a strong regional leadership on those areas being measure by the DB report; and competes in these areas with countries such as Mexico, Peru and Colombia.
Economy
|
DB
2016 Rank
|
DB
2006 Rank
|
Mexico
|
38
|
62
|
Chile
|
48
|
24
|
Peru
|
50
|
78
|
Colombia
|
54
|
76
|
Uruguay
|
92
|
70
|
Paraguay
|
100
|
110
|
Brazil
|
116
|
122
|
Ecuador
|
117
|
120
|
Argentina
|
121
|
93
|
Bolivia
|
157
|
126
|
Venezuela, RB
|
186
|
144
|
Chile, a country with about 17.5 million
citizens, inserted in a globalize economy with over 7 billion people, has no
room for bad reforms that hinder the business climate. For the first time Chile
fails with one of the reforms recorded in the DB ranking. Had it not been for
the Bankruptcy Act which came into force in October 2014, which cushion the
poor assessment obtained by the tax reform and the absence of other reforms,
Chile would have felled noticeable in the DB 2016 report.
But beyond the DB report, concerns about the
future of the Chilean economy goes with respect to the impacts of the 2014 tax
reform on investment, growth, job creation, shared prosperity and poverty
reduction; and on the uncertainty that emerges with the announcement to open
the discussion for a new constitution, together with some law proposals discussed in
the congress that might imply a deep change in the labor and educational arena,
where there is a deep disagreement about their benefits for social and economic
development.
The DB reports is an invitation for the
governments to improve the standards, the regulatory frameworks and to reduce
the transaction costs which affect the business environment, promoting simple,
well-designed and crafted policies to spur business investment, job creation,
economic growth and development. Countries that do not take advantage of the
opportunity to learn and implement reforms inspiered on the best practices, will
lag behind of those who take the opportunity to improve the business environment
and the living conditions for their citizens promoting the proper reforms.
*This note complements on the note “Informe Doing
Business: Otro llamado de atención para Chile", published with Felipe Larrain in
Diario Financiero, on November 6, 2015, pg. 4. www.df.cl
[1] For example, critics against
the DB have notice disagreements with issues such as the frequent changes made
to the methodologies (change that were recommended by an Independent Expert Panel
that revised the DB report in 2013); the retroactive revision of the rankings a
year after their publication (because of methodological changes); that it does
not give due consideration to on-the-ground reforms compared with changes in
laws or written codes; or that it has a built-in bias towards deregulation. However,
supporters say that Doing Business is objective, thoroughly researched and
spurs reform as countries try to improve their ranking. Further, a group of
academics and policy makers has published an open letter to the World Bank
calling on it to keep the rankings and broaden the data in the report. Further,
as noticed in DB 2016, the majority of Doing Business indicators are based on a
reading of the law, which makes the indicators “actionable”—as
the law is well within the sphere of influence of policy makers and is thus amenable
to change.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/773f9baa-cfb3-11e2-be7b-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3r6BnoHF9.
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/543779/money/economy/phl-slams-doing-business-report-in-complaint-letter-to-wb-chief
El Informe Doing Business: Otro llamado de atención para Chile*
El Informe Doing Business: Otro llamado de atención para Chile*
Felipe Larraín B. y Ricardo Raineri B.
Clapes UC y Facultad de Ingeniería PUC
El Banco Mundial (BM) dio a
conocer recientemente el informe Doing
Business 2016 (DB 2016) para 189 países. Este es el informe más conocido
del BM: en un año su sitio web registra casi 4 millones de visitas y medio
millón de descargas. El DB evalúa las principales restricciones regulatorias y económicas que afectan el
desarrollo de las PYMEs en diez áreas: iniciar una empresa, obtener permisos de
construcción, acceso a energía eléctrica, registro de propiedad, acceso al
crédito, protección a inversionistas minoritarios, pago de impuestos, comercio inter-fronterizo,
cumplimiento de contratos y solución de insolvencia. A partir de éstas se construye
un ranking global de cuán amigable es el ambiente para hacer negocios en cada
país.
En los últimos 12 años un número
importante de los países peor evaluados han llevado a cabo reformas importantes
que les han permitido acortar la brecha con los mejores. Un ejemplo: en 2003, en
promedio, tomaba 51 días iniciar un negocio; en 2015 esta cifra se redujo a 20
días.
DB 2016 tiene muchas mejoras luego
de una exhaustiva revisión metodológica que se realizó a partir de las
recomendaciones de un panel de expertos en 2013 y de su consejo asesor formado
en 2014. Los cambios introducidos incorporan aspectos de calidad a los
indicadores de eficiencia previos. Aunque esto dificulta comparar los rankings
del DB en el tiempo, sí es posible apreciar cuales son las tendencias de largo plazo
de los países.
Chile, desde mediados de 2006
hasta mediados de 2015 (esto es desde el DB 2007 hasta el DB 2016) registra un
total de 9 reformas regulatorias e institucionales en las variables que mide DB.
Hasta el DB 2015 Chile ya había sumado 7 de estas 9 reformas, todas evaluadas
favorablemente por el BM en tener un impacto positivo sobre el ambiente de
negocios. El informe DB 2016 suma las últimas 2 reformas de las 9: la Nueva Ley
de Quiebras, evaluada positivamente por el BM y en vigencia desde octubre de
2014; y la reforma tributaria del actual gobierno, evaluada negativamente por
el BM dados sus efectos adversos sobre las PYMEs. Así, por primera vez desde
que se desarrolla el informe DB, Chile se hace un autogol con una reforma que
impacta negativamente el ambiente para hacer negocios.
Asimismo, resulta muy preocupante
la tendencia de largo plazo negativa de Chile en el ranking DB --con excepción principalmente
de los años 2010-2013, en que mejoramos. En 2006 Chile lideró el ranking en
América Latina con la posición 24 a nivel global, seguido por México en la 62
(38 posiciones de ventaja). Sin embargo, la falta de reformas en la segunda
mitad en la década pasada relegó a Chile en el DB 2010 al cuarto lugar en
América Latina, en la posición 53, por debajo de Colombia, México y Perú. Esta
tendencia se quebró en DB 2011, y Chile logró recuperar la primera posición de
América Latina con el DB 2013, en el lugar 37 del ranking global. Hoy, con el
último DB 2016, Chile cae a la posición 48, por debajo de México. La tendencia
de largo plazo de deterioro en el ranking global debe ser materia de inquietud.
Mientras Chile no avanza o retrocede, muchos países siguen progresando en generar
un ambiente de negocios más seductor y atractivo. Hoy, la ventaja que otrora tuvo
Chile en el ranking DB sobre los países de la región --en sus aspectos
institucionales y en su clima de negocios-- se desvaneció. Chile hoy ya no tiene
un liderazgo marcado, y compite en estos aspectos con países como México, Perú
y Colombia. Como el DB es un análisis dinámico, si Chile no implementa nuevas reformas
que mejoren el ambiente de negocios --o si sigue implementando malas reformas,
como la tributaria-- el liderazgo que hemos tenido en el ranking DB puede
llegar a ser una anécdota.
Chile, un país pequeño inserto en
la economía global, no tiene holguras para hacer reformas que deterioren el clima
de negocios, puesto que el emprendimiento, las PYMEs y los empleos que éstas
generan son una de las principales herramientas para promover la movilidad
social, mejorar la calidad de vida de la población, dignificar a la persona y
dotarles de libertad.
La invitación del DB es a perfeccionar
normas, marcos regulatorios y reducir los costos de transacción que afectan el
ambiente de negocios con políticas simples y bien diseñadas. Los países que no tomen
en serio este desafío en una economía globalizada, sólo obstaculizarán su desarrollo
y perderán terreno en mejorar las condiciones de vida de sus ciudadanos. Hoy
por primera vez Chile reprueba con una de las reformas que se registra en el
ranking DB. De no haber sido por la Ley de Quiebras que permitió amortiguar la
mala evaluación de la reforma tributaria, la falta de otras reformas y los retrocesos
en los otros indicadores del ranking DB, la caída de Chile en ese ranking
habría sido mucho más notoria.
*Este comentario fue publicado en el Diario Financiero, el
día 6 de Noviembre de 2015, página 4. www.df.cl
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